How we work
The numbers don't come from nowhere.
Every analysis we deliver is the product of a structured research process. Here's what goes into each number, and why.
Our deal analyses are built for a specific market, a specific strategy, and a specific standard of evidence. The methodology below applies to our fix-and-flip work in the Denver metro. Every number is traceable to a specific input. Every assumption is documented. Nothing is averaged arbitrarily.
Comparable Selection
Comparable Selection
Every analysis begins with the comparable sales our analysts pull from recent closed transactions. Candidates are filtered by geography, property type, size, age, and bedroom and bathroom count — then evaluated across multiple similarity dimensions before a final set is confirmed.
Proximity matters, but it isn't the only thing that matters. A comp three blocks away in a materially different neighborhood carries less weight than one half a mile out that matches on every relevant dimension. Our process accounts for that. The analyst reviews the candidate pool and makes the final selection for each subject property.
The result is a comp set that reflects what a well-informed buyer would actually look at — not a mechanical radius pull.
After Repair Value
After Repair Value
ARV is calculated from the confirmed comp set using a size-adjusted, recency-weighted methodology. Each comparable produces its own implied value for the subject property, adjusted for the size difference between the two homes. Those individual estimates are then blended into a single aggregate figure, with recent sales carrying more weight than older ones.
We use a nonlinear weighting structure — a comp that closed last month has significantly more influence than one that closed eight months ago, not just proportionally more. This reflects how markets actually move.
Three confidence tiers are assigned based on comp count, proximity, and recency. A high-confidence ARV is supported by multiple recent, nearby sales. A lower-confidence ARV is flagged for additional analyst scrutiny before any offer recommendation is made.
Rehab Budget
Rehab Budget
Rehab estimates are built from base per-square-foot rates adjusted for property type, age, condition, and price tier. These four dimensions are treated independently — each contributes a multiplier that is combined into a single composite adjustment applied to the base rates.
A 1920s detached home in fixer condition at a $350,000 list price carries a very different cost profile than a 2008 townhome in average condition at $550,000. The system reflects that. Interior, exterior, landscaping, and systems costs are calculated separately by property type — condos, for instance, carry no exterior or landscaping line.
Analysts can refine any component. These estimates are an informed starting point, not a fixed output.
Holding & Transaction Costs
Holding & Transaction Costs
Holding costs account for property tax, insurance, HOA, and utilities across the estimated renovation and sale period. The hold timeline itself is calibrated by property size — larger homes take longer to renovate and sell, and the model reflects that with a size-adjusted days-held calculation subject to a minimum floor.
Where actual tax and HOA data is available from the MLS, we use it. Where it is not, we apply market-calibrated fallback rates rather than zeroing the line.
Transaction costs cover title and closing fees on both the acquisition and disposition side, plus disposition commissions. All rates are documented and adjustable per deal.
Financing
Financing
For fix-and-flip analyses, financing costs reflect a hard money loan structure — interest-only carry over the hold period plus an upfront origination fee. The loan is sized against ARV rather than purchase price, which is how hard money lenders actually underwrite and which avoids a circular dependency in the calculation.
Default parameters reflect current Denver hard money market rates. Analysts can override the interest rate, origination points, and LTV for any deal to model different financing scenarios or reflect a specific lender relationship.
Deal Math
Deal Math
The maximum offer price is the residual: ARV minus all costs (rehab, holding, transaction, financing) minus the target profit. It is the highest price you can pay and still achieve your required return.
We also report spread — the gap between ARV and list price — and gap per square foot, which normalizes the opportunity across properties of different sizes and price points. A $70,000 spread on a 1,200 square foot home and a $70,000 spread on a 2,800 square foot home are not the same deal. Gap per square foot makes that comparison honest.
Target profit is configurable per deal. Partners who receive a shared analysis can adjust their own assumptions — ARV, rehab, target profit, timeline — and see how the numbers move, without affecting the analyst's version.
The calculation
Every cost is accounted for before we name a price.
The maximum offer is not a rule of thumb. It is the result of a full cost waterfall — every dollar between ARV and purchase price is allocated before we arrive at a number.
Spread (ARV − list) $65,000
Gap / sqft $36.11
Offer % 76.7%
Limitations
What our numbers don't do.
Our analyses are a rigorous starting point — not a substitute for due diligence. We are direct about the boundaries.
- We do not inspect properties. Condition assessments are based on available MLS data and analyst judgment.
- Rehab estimates are starting points. Scope can vary significantly from what a contractor finds on site.
- Market conditions can move faster than any analysis reflects. ARV is an estimate of value today, not a guarantee of sale price tomorrow.
- The analysis is a disciplined input to an investment decision — not a substitute for due diligence.
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